South Korea may have passed peak infection, Italy not so much
UPDATED WITH LATEST DATA.
Over the last week or so the trend seem to have been a decline in daily new cases of COVID-19 in South Korea, which was also reinforced when data for March 9th came in at 164 new cases. Could this indicate that the containment efforts are effective?
Italy is a different story however. Here we can see that we are still in exponential growth phase where new daily cases are increasing. The Italian outbreak may be more difficult to contain due to a greater number of undetected, which is indicated by the apparent mortality rate. It is not unreasonable to assume that Italy in reality has 2-5 times the official tested infected individuals. This is also why the rather draconian measures imposed by the Italian government may be necessary to slow down the spread.